Why This Bitcoin Price Prediction Signals a Breakout
Bitcoin price prediction has never been more critical than it is right now. After sweeping liquidity below the recent low and bouncing nearly 5%, BTC is coiling beneath a clearly defined diagonal resistance. Historically, breakouts occur when open interest is lopsided and liquidation clusters build on one side of the market—exactly what we are seeing today. More than $100 million in short positions sit above $106,000, acting like a magnet for price.
From a sentiment standpoint, the Fear & Greed Index continues to hover in neutral territory, suggesting traders are sidelined and waiting for confirmation. That complacency can fuel explosive upside once price cracks initial resistance. On-chain data backs the bullish case: exchange reserves have fallen to a three-year low, while long-term holders are adding to positions.
For readers new to BTC, revisit our deep dive on Bitcoin halving cycles and their impact on supply shocks for extra context. If you want to sharpen your edge before the move, check our tutorial on setting stop-losses effectively.
Bottom line: with liquidation fuel above, diminishing exchange supply, and improving sentiment, the stage is set for a textbook BTC breakout. All eyes remain on the critical trendline that has capped price action for weeks.
Liquidation Levels & Volume: The Engine Behind a BTC Breakout
Understanding liquidation dynamics is essential to any Bitcoin trading strategy. Liquidation levels represent price zones where leveraged traders will be forced out of positions, adding instantaneous buy or sell pressure. At the moment, the largest cluster—worth roughly $113 million—sits just above $106,000. When price approaches that pocket, automated buy orders will chase the market higher, often producing a swift wick that triggers cascading liquidations in the opposite direction.
Volume corroborates the thesis. On the one-hour chart, the highest volume spike in weeks arrived precisely at the local bottom near $100.7k, implying strong buyer interest. Follow-through volume on each subsequent green candle confirms genuine demand rather than a mere short squeeze. Typically, sustainable breakouts feature expanding volume on the move up and contracting volume on pullbacks—exactly the pattern forming now.
Traders should watch three metrics: spot volume relative to the 20-day average, funding rates on perpetual swaps, and order-book imbalance. Elevated positive funding rates can signal overcrowded longs, whereas neutral or negative rates suggest room for upside. For a refresher on reading order flow, see our guide to using the Depth Chart effectively.
If spot and derivatives volume keep climbing, liquidation fuel could catapult price through resistance, validating the current Bitcoin price prediction.
Chart Patterns & Key Bitcoin Price Targets to Watch
Technical analysts are laser-focused on two overlapping chart structures: a descending trendline from the last swing high and a classic ABC corrective pattern. A decisive break of the descending resistance at roughly $104,500 could ignite a move toward the next Bitcoin price target at $106,000—home to that hefty liquidation cluster. Confluence builds further with the Point of Control (PoC) from the visible range volume profile, also hovering near $104k.
Above $106,000, Fibonacci confluence arrives at $107,700, where the 0.618 retracement from the April high to the recent swing low meets the value-area high. Expect profit-taking and a potential intraday rejection here. However, should volume expand rather than fade, the pattern morphs from corrective to impulsive, and the path opens toward a fresh all-time high.
Key Levels Recap:
• Breakout trigger: $104,500
• First resistance & liquidation magnet: $106,000
• Golden-Pocket & value-area high: $107,700
Internal link opportunity: for those unsure how to draw Fibonacci retracements, read our beginner’s tutorial on Fibonacci trading tools.
Reminder: the YouTube video embedded below this section provides a real-time walkthrough of these zones and how to set alerts on TradingView.
Elliott Waves, ABC Corrections & Tactical Trade Set-Ups
The speaker in the video highlights an Elliott Wave count suggesting the recent rally is Wave A of a larger ABC correction. Under that framework, Wave B could stall near $107,700 before Wave C sweeps lower—unless, of course, volume invalidates the count. Trading around potential Elliott structures requires a flexible mindset: plan for both continuation and reversal.
Action Plan for Traders:
1. Long continuation: If BTC closes two four-hour candles above $106,000 on rising volume, consider a breakout long with a stop just below the broken trendline.
2. Fade the ABC: Should volume diverge (price up, volume down) into $107,700, look for bearish divergence on the RSI. Enter short with a target back at the PoC (~$104k).
3. Invalidation: Any daily close above $108,000 accompanied by >15% above-average volume likely signals Wave 3 of a new impulse—stay long.
Risk Management Tip: Limit position size to 2% of total account value and shift stops to breakeven once price moves 1R in your favor. For deeper insight, see our article on calculating position size with the Kelly Criterion.
Remember, Elliott Wave is best used alongside objective data like liquidation levels and order-flow. Combine multiple signals to elevate your Bitcoin trading strategy.
Bitcoin Dominance & The Timing of the Next Altcoin Season
While Bitcoin captures headlines, altcoin traders are eager for signals that capital will rotate. Bitcoin dominance, currently near 56%, remains in a firm uptrend on the daily chart, indicating BTC continues to suck oxygen from the broader crypto market. Historical data shows meaningful altcoin rallies rarely begin until dominance hits major resistance—around 71% in both 2019 and 2021.
If dominance reaches that band again, watch for a sharp rejection. That move would imply profit rotation from BTC into high-beta assets such as ETH, SOL, and select meme coins. Until then, focusing on Bitcoin price prediction remains prudent.
Macro Catalysts To Monitor:
• Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows or outflows
• Upcoming U.S. CPI releases influencing risk sentiment
• Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade (potential narrative spark)
For a deeper dive into cross-asset rotations, check our explainer on how money flows between Bitcoin, large-cap altcoins, and DeFi tokens.
Strategically, keep core exposure in BTC until dominance flashes exhaustion. Then plan gradual reallocation to outperformers. Patience here often separates consistent profits from chasing underperforming coins.
Executing the Strategy: Final Thoughts on This Bitcoin Price Prediction
To conclude, today’s Bitcoin price prediction hinges on three pillars: stacked liquidation levels above price, expanding spot volume, and a looming diagonal breakout. Traders who align with these data-backed signals stand to capture asymmetric upside. The roadmap is clear: monitor volume as price approaches $104,500, be prepared for volatility around $106,000, and reassess at $107,700 depending on volume behavior.
Checklist Before Entering a Trade:
• Confirm breakout with two time-frame agreement (1H and 4H)
• Verify funding rates remain neutral or slightly negative
• Set alerts at key levels to avoid emotional FOMO
• Size positions so a stop-loss hit equals <2% account risk
If price rips higher on strong volume, the next logical Bitcoin price target is a new all-time high. Conversely, weakening volume into resistance favors the ABC pullback thesis. Flexibility, coupled with strict risk controls, will keep you solvent regardless of outcome.
For ongoing education, explore our piece on crypto risk management essentials and our walkthrough on building a balanced portfolio for long-term growth.
Stay disciplined, stick to the data, and let the market confirm the Bitcoin price prediction before committing large capital.
